Yahoo Autos Butler basketball vs. Saginaw Valley State: Three things I'm watching
INDIANAPOLIS – In what has so far been an unusual season, Butler will play an unusual opponent at an unusual time in college basketball Tuesday at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Saginaw Valley State (4-2) is the second successive NCAA Division II opponent for the Bulldogs, who raised their record to 4-3 with an 84-53 win over another D-II team, Chaminade, at Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Tipoff is 5 p.m. on FS1.
More: Insider video: This team not resembling Butler
Another oddity: The game counts toward Butler’s regular season but is an exhibition for Saginaw Valley State. The Cardinals scored their first-ever victory over a Division I opponent, beating Western Michigan 80-63 on Nov. 18.
Butler must wait until at least Dec. 7 at Oklahoma for its first victory over a Power Six opponent. The Bulldogs have not gone so long into a season without such a win since 2012, when they beat Purdue 67-65 in the Crossroads Classic Dec. 17.
What I’ll be watching:
More lineup juggling
Last season’s top scorer, Chuck Harris, is listed as questionable with a foot injury. His participation will be a game-time decision.
Remaining out are Bryce Nze, Bo Hodges and Myles Tate.
Any one of these omissions would have diminished the Bulldogs, and all of them simultaneously make early struggles more understandable. The schedule has also been unforgiving: losses to No. 22 Michigan State, No. 15 Houston and 6-1 Texas A&M.
Ty Groce and sixth man Jair Bolden slide into the starting lineup for Nze and Harris, respectively.
Analytics by Evan Miyakawa show the best five-man lineup to be Harris/Groce/Bolden/Bryce Golden/Jayden Taylor. But that comprises 21 possessions and thus might not be meaningful. Those same analytics rate Nze as by far Butler’s most effective player.
In Sagarin computer ratings, Butler is 98th and behind every other Big East team except Georgetown (143rd). In KenPom.com, Butler is 87th and behind Georgetown (105th) and DePaul (108th).
Getting a grip (on the ball)
Through Sunday’s games, Butler was 349th (out of 358) in frequency of turnovers at 25.4%. And Butler is last among Power Six teams.
For a program whose worst teams were among national leaders in fewest turnovers, this is unfathomable but perhaps fixable. Even fifth-year point guard Aaron Thompson has only a 13-to-12 assist/turnover ratio.
When not giving up transition baskets, Butler’s half-court defense has held up. Butler is first in the Big East and 31st in the NCAA in scoring defense (58.6).
Bulldogs need 2s, too
According to KenPom, Butler is dead last in the country (358th) in percent of scoring on two-pointers (34.5%) and fifth nationally in percent of attempts that are 3s (51.5%).
However, those figures exclude the Bulldogs’ 71% shooting (20-of-28) inside the arc against D-II Chaminade.
Three-point accuracy was a preseason question mark for the Bulldogs, who are shooting 37% from there, compared with 32% last season. But they cannot stand on the arc for entire games. Paint points – from post players or dribble drives – are necessary to balance what has been a clunky offense.
Contact IndyStar reporter David Woods at david.woods@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidWoods007.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Butler basketball meets another NCAA Division II opponent
