El Niño is here. Does that mean NC will have a 2023 summer heat wave?

“El Niño is here,” weather experts declared this month, potentially impacting Charlotte’s weather this summer and into the rest of 2023.

“El Niño conditions have developed, as the atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface kicked in over the past month,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in June. Those atmospheric changes can have a major impact on daily weather.

And, NOAA added, the odds of this El Niño “becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good.”

Here’s what to know about the El Niño year and what it means for North Carolina:

Is 2023 going to be an El Niño year?

NOAA declared in June that El Niño conditions had officially developed.

“El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern — changes global atmospheric circulation in known ways, giving us an idea of potential upcoming weather and climate patterns,” the group said. “A stronger El Niño means global temperature, rain, and other patterns are more likely to reflect the expected El Niño impacts.”

NOAA estimates that there’s a 56% chance this El Niño will become “a strong event at its peak,” and about an 84% chance “of at least a moderate event.”

What does El Niño mean for North Carolina?

An El Niño typically has “the strongest impacts on the weather in December, January, and February in the Southeast,” according to NC State University’s Climate Office, “although it can continue to impact weather regionally for several months.”

“For much of the southeastern United States,” NC State adds, an El Niño summer “is usually warmer and drier.”

And El Niño can affect hurricane season in the Southeast, too.

“The strong subtropical jet stream also tends to disrupt the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico,” NC State explains. “Because of that, fewer hurricanes are likely during an El Niño year in the tropical Atlantic.”