Explaining the Toyota Reliability ‘Crisis’

As we get towards the end of 2024, and you reflect on the last twelve months and all you did or didn’t accomplish, consider this: you probably had it easier than Toyota. 2024 was a no good, very bad year for the company’s reputation as a purveyor of reliable automobiles thanks to a string of high-profile recalls, defects, and generally catastrophic failures. Though you have to give it to them: They did say no more boring cars.

To wit, just this year alone, Toyota had to replace the engines in over 100,000 Tundra pickups and Lexus LXs because a manufacturing issue was causing them to seize up. It recalled over 380,000 last-gen Tacomas because the rear axle wasn’t screwed together correctly, and transmissions are now failing in the new truck. Botched traction control software in the Corolla Cross hybrid is causing power brake assist to fail. Meanwhile the GR86 is still blowing engines due to oil starvation, and now a couple GR Corollas have randomly caught fire under mysterious circumstances.

Not great! Definitely feels like things are snowballing. But are they? It’s obvious Toyota is having an unusually bad run. Less obvious is the web of interconnected causes behind many of these recent problems, and the bigger picture it creates.

I really am not trying to discount the clear fact that 100,000 bad engines alone is the definition of a reliability crisis. But the other thing about crises is they’re generally short-lived, as I think will be the case here. This isn’t a permanent shift—yet.

Let’s take the Tundra debacle: Toyota replaced the old simple V8 with a new twin-turbo V6 when the new generation debuted in 2021. Immediately, people wondered whether a smaller, high-strung engine would hold up in the real world. When hundreds of them failed over the next couple years, it seemed the concerns were justified. Earlier this year, Toyota finally released the cause: metal shavings accidentally left behind during the manufacturing process were getting stuck in critical places.

That’s a bad one, but it’s also just a really stupid mistake, like when an MLB pitcher throws one into the stands. As frustrating as it was for owners, I would argue it’s not indicative of deep-set issues or a company making deliberate choices to move away from standards that made them great. Nor is it surprising since the last generation Tundra was in production for over 14 years. They could make that thing in their sleep by the end, and new generational changeovers inevitably bring new problems.

Likewise with the Tacoma, the last generation truck was using a 5-speed automatic transmission with roots dating back over 30 years. Toyota finally dropped a new 8-speed in the new truck when it hit dealers this year. As with the Tundra, the first six months of sales were accompanied by worrying reports on forums of total transmission failures under 5,000 miles. So far Toyota has acknowledged the problem and is looking into it, but without a recall there’s been no formal cause identified. Again, this is a serious issue. And again, it’s tied to a brand new major component replacing one that was in production for an incredibly long time.

Then there’s that axle issue, which, I think this one is interesting. It’s also an assembly error where welding debris got stuck on bolts and stopped retaining nuts from being fully torqued down at the factory. The recall covers 381,000 Tacomas from the 2022 and 2023 model year, which just so happens to be the stretch where Toyota shifted production of the truck from San Antonio to two factories in Mexico as the Texas plant retooled for the new Tundra and Sequoia. The Mexican factories had only built Tacomas in limited numbers before, and suddenly they were America’s sole suppliers. Not a stretch to connect a big increase in output with assembly issues.

The GR86 engine failures have been a thing for years now, stretching back to the car’s first generation in fact. Too much liquid gasket material is being applied to the oil pan during assembly, making a lip of excess RTV on the inside of the pan that can break off, get stuck, and stop the flow of oil. Toyota’s never issued a recall. What it (and its dealers) has done is greatly amplify the problem by denying warranty claims for ridiculous reasons and forcing people to make a scene in the media to get a new engine.

Though it’s a low-production car and the total number of failures is way below that of the Tundra, and Subaru is the one actually building the engine, the GR86 oil issue is often held up as Exhibit A for Toyota’s reliability being in the toilet now. I would say two things: one, it’s not new problem. And two, it’s not something that directly relates to the question of whether RAV4s are going to start catching on fire, though. The GR Corollas, though… they gotta get ahead of that one.

The thing about Toyota, though, is that it’s pretty much the only automaker left making hugely popular models in every single segment. It’s incredibly visible, incredibly popular, and incredibly high-volume. Ultimately, despite the crap year, Toyota’s recall rate is still far lower than most other companies, its used vehicle reliability rankings are still very high, and as the highest-selling automaker in America, it’s still slinging far more 100% reliable cars than some companies’ entire annual output. We just notice it a lot more when the A+ student suddenly gets a B. Toyota can turn this around; it just needs to hit the books again.

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