NASCAR Cup Contender Denny Hamlin May Finally Be on Verge of Flipping the Script

• Hamlin is NASCAR’s second-winningest active Cup driver, his 54 trailing only two-time champion Kyle Busch’s 63.

• With three Daytona 500 victories and the Hall of Fame awaiting, Hamlin is in the discussion to be considered NASCAR’s all-time best Cup Series driver without a Cup championship.

• Hamlin’s been a Championship 4 finalist four times, more than anyone.

You weren’t surprised, were you, when Denny Hamlin did well enough at Bristol last weekend to reach Round 2 of NASCAR’s four-round, championship-deciding Playoffs? It was as good as money in the bank.

A bettor would have called it a sure thing.

Everything in Hamlin’s 19-year career pointed in that direction. Without doubt, being a championship contender is in his DNA.

Including this season, the driver for Toyota-based Joe Gibbs Racing has qualified for all 11 Playoffs that began in 2014. He reached the Championship-4 that season and advanced to at least Round 3 in each of the next four seasons. He reached the Championship 4 from 2019-2021, an unprecedented streak nobody not named Jimmie Johnson has ever enjoyed.

Hamlin’s recent fourth-place at Bristol took him from six points below the 12-driver elimination cutline to 10 points above. The four-round series visits Kansas City this weekend, then goes to Talladega before another elimination race on the Charlotte Roval. Unless something unusual happens he’ll almost certainly get through to Round 3 at Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville.

After that… who knows? He’s been there before without leaving as a champion.

As it stands, Hamlin’s been a Championship 4 finalist four times, more than anyone. Ross Chastain’s memorable last-lap pass at Martinsville in 2022 kept him from a fifth appearance by one finish position. And despite finishing third in last year’s Martinsville elimination race, he again failed to advance into the Championship-4. Overall, he’s been top-1o in points 16 times in his 18 full seasons, including third in 2006 behind Johnson and Matt Kenseth and second to Johnson in 2010. Few modern-era drivers have ever maintained that level of consistency.

If Chastain’s memorable 2022 pass left Hamlin dumbfounded, he was somewhat stoic after finishing third but still missing last year’s finals by eight points. He started Martinsville 37 points below the cutline after an uncharacteristic wreck-related 30th at Homestead the previous weekend.

“He (race winner and soon-to-be champion Ryan Blaney) definitely had the best car and we were next,” he said after the Martinsville disappointment. “And I wouldn’t have done anything different; there’s nothing I could have done through these Playoffs to be any different. On a day when we had to have a phenomenal day, we did … but it just wasn’t quite good enough because we were in such a hole from last week.”

Hamlin is NASCAR’s second-winningest active Cup driver, his 54 trailing only two-time champion Kyle Busch’s 63. With three Daytona 500 victories and the Hall of Fame awaiting, the argument has been made that he’s NASCAR’s all-time best driver without a championship. (Mark Martin and Junior Johnson are in that discussion).

During a recent media event Hamlin addressed that frequent “best ever without…” talk.

“I know I’m a championship-caliber driver,” he said. “I’ll just say it: I think there have been worse drivers than me who a championship.” (Wisely, he didn’t name names). “I feel that way just because of how things that have worked out. It’s different now.

"Find one driver saying that championships are the same now as they were 10 years ago. I care about wins and winning every single week because in the end I absolutely would take 60-some wins and no championship over 20 wins and one championship. It’s just not even close.”

Whistling past the graveyard, is he? Well, we’re about to find out.