NASCAR Playoff Format Gives Mid-Packers Too Much of a Chance at Cup Title

From 1949-2013 NASCAR determined its Cup Series champion via finish-position points over a full season.

In 2014, officials unveiled a 16-driver, 10-race, four-round championship “tournament.”

For at least another week—going into Saturday night’s Food City 500 at Bristol—several mid-packers from the regular season still have a puncher’s shot at hoisting the Bill France Trophy in November.

As hard as it may be to understand or accept, Austin Cindric has as good a shot at this year’s Cup Series championship as, say, Harrison Burton.

Likewise, Martin Truex Jr. is still championship-eligible for at least another weekend. The same holds for Chase Briscoe and Daniel Suarez.

Huh?

Those mid-packers combined to win five races this year. Some series-watchers find that akin to the WWE’s popular “Smack Down” shows. In the end, of course, the good guys almost always win. But they’ll probably get massively kicked around for a while before rallying at closing time.

From 1949-2013 NASCAR determined its Cup Series champion via finish-position points over a full season. It was simple: race, earn points, and wait for someone in Daytona Beach to add ’em up and announce the champion. There were occasional adjustments—lap-deader bonus points and top-10 stage points became important in recent years—but the champion was always the driver who’d earned the most points.

If he happened to clinch before the final race, so be it. NASCAR and its networks didn’t relish that possibility, but there wasn’t anything they could do about it.

Everything changed in 2014. After much discussion, officials unveiled a 16-driver, 10-race, four-round championship “tournament.” Under it, the four lowest-ranked Cup-eligible drivers were eliminated after each of the three three-race rounds. Using finish-position and stage points, those first nine Playoff races eliminated 12 of the original 16 championship hopefuls. The best finisher among the Championship-4 after the season-finale at Phoenix was the champion.

Under the pre-2014 format, Cindric, Briscoe, Suarez, and Truex Jr. likely would be out of this year’s championship hunt. For that matter, so would Joey Logano, a two-time series champion.

But for at least another week—going into Saturday night’s Food City 500 at Bristol—those five have a puncher’s shot at hoisting the Bill France Trophy in November. In fact, officials will remind you that all 16 Playoff drivers are still alive. Four will be gone after this weekend, leading to the Round of 12 that includes Kansas City, Talladega, and the Charlotte Roval.

That’s why even the sport’s harshest critics must acknowledge that the pre-2014 format would have already doomed many of this year’s championship hopefuls. Instead, like the NCAA’s wildly popular March Madness and the NFL’s Super Bowl buildup, NASCAR is sustaining fan and network interest by keeping everyone in the game as long as possible.

Sort of like how the WWE lets its fan-favorites get kicked around until it’s time to end the show and bring on the next event.

Cindric, for example, would be 316 points behind the leader instead of just three with eight races remaining. Logano would be 213 down instead of five. Suarez would trail by 286 instead of 10. Briscoe would be 290 points behind instead of 40 and Truex Jr. would be down 178 points instead of 54.

For each, their championship hopes would be dashed by now. Granted, though, some drivers are in peril, as they should be this time of year.

Perennial championship contender and a three-race 2024 winner Denny Hamlin goes into Bristol 46 points below the Round of 12 cutline. He’s won four poles and four races at the half-mile bullring in eastern Tennessee, so he’s entitled to feel somewhat hopeful. Under the previous format, he’d be 122 points behind the leader and done.

Brad Keselowski is 52 points below the top-12 cutline but has won three times on Bristol’s high-banked concrete oval. Under the previous format he’d be 134 points behind and, like Hamlin, almost hopelessly out of the championship picture.

More important than “what-might-have-been” is the current “what- might-be.” Winless Ty Gibbs and one-timer Briscoe go into Bristol a vulnerable 40 points above the cutline to advance into the Round of 12. Winless Truex Jr. is 54 below the cutline and one-timer Harrison Burton is 60 below the line. Both, though, still have a chance going into Bristol.

Logano won the Playoff-opener near Atlanta to ensure himself a place in the three-race Round of 12. Points-leader Christopher Bell and Cindric, Alex Bowman, Suarez, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and William Byron are somewhat comfortably above the top-12 cutline.

Remember what NASCAR wants you to know: with one race left in the first of three elimination rounds, the 16 championship hopeful remain Cup-eligible. Really, what’s not to like about that?

And before you ask… no, unlike the WWE’s scripted shows and despite what some fans might think NASCAR hasn’t stooped to that level.

Current NASCAR Cup Series Standings

1. Christopher Bell 2,089

2. Austin Cindric 2,086 (-3)

3. Alex Bowman 2,084 (-5)

4. Joey Logano 2,084 (-5)

5. Daniel Suarez 2,079 (-10)

6. Chase Elliott 2,073 (-16)

7. Tyler Reddick 2,073 (-16)

8. Ryan Blaney 2,072 (-17)

9. Kyle Larson 2,069 (-20)

10. William Byron 2,068 (-21)

11. Ty Gibbs 2,049 (-40)

12. Chase Briscoe 2,049 (-40)

13. Denny Hamlin 2,043 (-46)

14. Brad Keselowski 2,037 (-52)

15. Martin Truex Jr. 2,035 (-54)

16. Harrison Burton 2,029 (-60)

17. Ross Chastain 739 (-1,350)

18. Chris Buescher 731 (-1,358)

19. Bubba Wallace 697 (-1,392)

20. Kyle Busch 624 (-1,465)

Standings If There Was Not a Points Reset to Start Playoffs

1. Tyler Reddick 907

2. Chase Elliott 892 (-15)

3. Kyle Larson 890 (-17)

4. Christopher Bell 842 (-65)

5. Ryan Blaney 812 (-95)

6. William Byron 808 (-99)

7. Denny Hamlin 785 (-122)

8. Brad Keselowski 773 (-134)

9. Ty Gibbs 749 (-158)

10. Alex Bowman 747 (-160)

11. Ross Chastain 740 (-167)

12. Chris Buescher 731 (-176)

13. Martin Truex Jr. 729 (-178)

14. Bubba Wallace 697 (-210)

15. Joey Logano 694 (-213)

16. Kyle Busch 624 (-283)

17. Daniel Suarez 621 (-286)

18. Chase Briscoe 617 (-290)

19. Austin Cindric 591 (-316)

20. Todd Gilliland 531 (-376)