Why New Car Sales Won't Set Records: Lots Of Little Reasons, Says Economist

Stricter fuel-economy standards will gradually reduce the environmental impact of cars, but what if people just stopped buying them?

New-car sales haven't yet recovered to their pre-recession levels, and at least one analyst believes that at best, they'll only equal those heights this year.

RELATED: Growth In Mass-Transit Usage Outpaces Increase In Miles Driven In U.S.

The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) says 16.4 million vehicles were sold last year, against 16.9 million in both 2005 and 2006, heights that were followed by several years of declines.

Steve Szakaly, the group's chief economist, believes that this year's sales will only hit the same 16.9 million--against projections higher than 17 million by other analysts.

Long-term trends will continue to siphon off sales, Steve told industry trade journal Automotive News (subscription required).

His calculations aren't due to any one major factor, but rather a combination of smaller trends that together will keep sales down, he said.

For one, people are driving less. Annual U.S. vehicle miles traveled peaked n 2004, and has declined since then.

In 2013, 5.3 percent of Americans used public transit, compared to 4.7 percent in 2007.

MORE: Millennials Own Fewer Cars, Seek Other Ways To Get Around: Report

A 0.6-percent gain may not seem like much, but it's notable that public-transit ridership continued to climb even as the economy regained momentum.

It's not uncommon for people to stop driving during an economic downturn to save money, but this uptick seems to indicate that commuters are sticking with trains, buses, and subways.

Around 2 percent of Americans also telecommute--meaning they don't need a car at all to get to work.