Recognizable NJ Republicans won big Tuesday. But is Trumpism really going away? — Stile

The New Jersey Republican establishment held its ground in Tuesday's primary.

Rank-and-file, establishment Republicans thumped most of the MAGA contingent of congressional candidates with double-digit losses. Crackpot-ism didn't crack the moderate tradition in New Jersey.

And former President Donald Trump, who talks a big game in front of donors and sycophants in Bedminster, refused to put any of his political capital or money on the line in New Jersey.

Trump issued a political fatwa on Rep. Chris Smith in the 4th Congressional District, vowing support to candidates who agreed to take out the 41-year veteran in the primary. Mike Crispi, a 29-year-old, media-savvy podcaster answered the call. But the 45th president never showed his face.

All in all, the primary proved that despite an animated Republican base and an accompanying surge in voter turnout, the New Jersey GOP's center-right held its ground — for now.

"Reasonable, rational, longtime-serving Republicans won, from Thomas Kean [Jr.] from on down," said Bill Palatucci, longtime Republican National Committee member of New Jersey, referring to former state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr.'s victory in the 7th Congressional District primary despite facing six conservative challengers.

"So, for me — call me an establishment Republican — it was a good night,'' he said.

The big MAGA test is a big bust

This was supposed to be the big test of the "America First" fury in New Jersey. The candidates channeled their hatred of the establishment, brandishing the RINO — Republicans In Name Only — smear as a stand-in for phoniness and D.C.-swamp creature cravenness. RINOs are weak, corrupt and as much a threat to the American values as Bernie Sanders socialists, these Trumpist Republicans argue.

Right-wing candidate Phil Rizzo's faith in the RINO charge was so strong that he used it shame potential donors to contribute to his campaign against Kean.

"I’m shocked,'' Rizzo pleaded in one fundraising solicitation. "I heard you are a patriot, a strong conservative, and one of President Trump’s biggest defenders. But I haven’t yet seen your name on our fundraising lists to send New Jersey’s biggest RINO home!"

But Tuesday, New Jersey's alleged RINOs proved they are not an endangered species. Quite the contrary. Establishment candidates will be the ones hitting the hustings against the Democrats this fall, not the MAGA disciples. The big test proved to be a big bust.

It was evident in the marquee midterm races for Congress. Crispi lost by nearly 20 points to Smith. In the 3rd Congressional District, which reaches through Burlington County and parts of Mercer and Monmouth counties in south-central Jersey, establishment candidate Bob Healey captured 53% of the vote, defeating Trumpist challenger Ian Smith, the gym owner who enjoyed 15 minutes of right-wing celebrity for his defiance of Gov. Phil Murphy's lockdown orders, by nearly 15 points.

And Kean earned close to 46% of the vote with nearly 90% of precincts reporting Tuesday night, outpacing Rizzo by nearly a 22-point margin.

Some races, though, didn't easily fit the clear narrative of an establishment romp.

Frank Pallotta, the former Wall Street investment banker, edged out Nick De Gregorio, a former Marine and combat veteran who won the organizational line in Bergen County, which is home to the largest number of voters in the 5th Congressional District.

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Pallotta may very well be helped by the incumbent, Democrat Rep. Josh Gottheimer of Wyckoff. Betting that Pallotta would be the weaker candidate in the fall race, Gottheimer distributed adds touting Pallotta's ties to Trump. Gottheimer's move may have boosted Pallotta's standing in the MAGA base.

And Kean, running in a district that became redder after redistricting last year, wrapped himself in the Trump mantle, with the state GOP sending mailers with the ex-president's visage with an endorsement of "Trump's Agenda."

But that agenda -- supporting police, border security and fighting inflation -- are generic talking points that Republicans of any stripe could embrace. Kean, the scion of former Gov. Thomas H. Kean, the pillar of "politics of inclusion" moderation, didn't fully drink the Trump cult Kool Aid.

For the most part, the moderate wing flexed its muscle in New Jersey. Some of that might have had to do with the nature of down-ballot races. Ocean County is a hotbed of Trumpism, and Crispi was banking on attracting many hard-core conservatives there.

But a titanic battle for the county chairman's seat drew large numbers of party regulars to the polls — not ideological activists. Ocean County voters who supported establishment, organizational Republican candidates defeated the America First candidates by close to a 2-to-1 margin, results show.

"This was your more traditional, staid, year-in, year-out type of voter,'' said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. "This was not the emotional, 'We got to go and support this candidate who is going to shake up the world' kind of primary."

Trumpist upstarts remain unvanquished

Still, while the establishment had a good night Tuesday, it did not vanquish the right wing upstarts. Kean certainly benefited from a crowded field of challengers on the right. The race might have been much closer if he faced one unified right-wing foe, according to the results.

And despite being outspent, Crispi ran a fiery campaign, slamming Smith as a Washington, D.C., establishment creature who has been in office too long and has lost touch with the pulse of the emerging party. Crispi's candidacy, combined with another conservative, Steven Gray, garnered 40% of the vote — those are figures Smith and his establishment backers cannot dismiss lightly.

Smith may have been aided by the turnout generated by the organizational battle this time. But he can't rely on that in two years.

"So the fact that Chris Smith got help from these Ocean County local races or from the organization... doesn't suggest that he is in control of his own destiny,'' Rasmussen said.

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In his election night speech to supporters Tuesday night, Smith dispensed with the conciliatory niceties of a traditional victory speech. He was clearly riled by Crispi and his antics.

“He has lied repeatedly. At first I was told to ‘just ignore it.’ I finally got to the point where I wasn’t going to ignore it anymore and I set the record straight,” Smith told the crowd according to a Politico report. “He even showed up at our home last night and put a sign on our lawn. That is so bush league and sophomoric. … Hopefully he never runs for anything and nobody in this organization ever supports him.”

Crispi described Smith's remarks as "vicious" and "nasty'' and vowed to return to haunt the incumbent on the trail in two years.

"We are just getting started and we are going to expose and take down RINOs like him,'' Crispi said Tuesday night.

But to Palatucci, the MAGA movement's bark on social media was bigger than itsr bite.

"I think all these candidates get fooled by their social media presence and reply to their tweets or seeing tweets and Facebook responses,'' he said. "A minority likes their message, but there's a world of difference between there and winning a contest."

Charlie Stile is a veteran political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com 

Twitter: @politicalstile 

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NJ GOP rejects Trump — but is Trumpism really going away?