Can Small Robots and Car-Sized Robotaxis Handle the Workload?

• Small delivery robots that use pedestrian areas are spreading on college campuses, with Serve Robotics introducing the latest models with improved sensor and computing power.

• The industry is now headed in the direction of lowering manufacturing costs, increasing range and improving autonomy.

• SAE Level 4 delivery robots that use roads face a tougher regulatory landscape, as they differ little from robotaxis when it comes to safety and permits, while also requiring non-trivial manufacturing costs.

Delivery robots are here to stay, at least on college campuses. The start of the academic year has already seen an increase in the numbers of universities with small machines scurrying around.

One delivery robot manufacturer announced expansion plans earlier this summer just as more retailers are getting more comfortable with online ordering and using small fleets of robots. And the numbers of campuses with delivery robots are expected to grow.

Earlier this month Serve Robotics debuted its third-generation robot, featuring what it called "a substantially reduced manufacturing cost," in addition to a larger capacity and double the travel speed.

The new robots also feature five times the computing power thanks to Nvidia's Jetson Orin module, allowing the robot to use AI to make autonomous navigation decisions quicker, as well as Ouster's new REV7 digital lidar sensor pod.

"Producing a cutting-edge robot that can drive faster and further while running five times more AI and slashing costs by half is a true engineering feat," said Ali Kashani, CEO and co-founder of Serve Robotics.

Serve's third-gen robot has already entered production, with some 2,000 units expected to be deployed in 2025.

It's becoming clear that the race in the delivery robot world now focuses on greater autonomous decision-making, thanks to advances in mobile computing power, as well as lower production costs and smaller sensor packages.

As in the early years of any technology, evolution is happening fast.

But the surge in interest from college-adjacent retailers also highlights one important distinction in the types of delivery robots: Smaller ones that use sidewalks and other pedestrian zones, and larger ones that use the roads.

The latter are still rare due to needing SAE Level 4 regulatory permission in various jurisdictions, while also requiring hefty manufacturing costs to produce custom bodies—a process that is particularly difficult to scale at the moment, and one that is not expected to become much cheaper over time due to volumes involved.

What's more, robotaxis are now coming for that particular segment, with robotaxi developers having figured that once SAE Level 4 permission is obtained for a given area and a fleet is deployed, it doesn't really matter whether a car carries passengers or food. All it takes at that point for a robotaxi to become a delivery robot is an app-based food delivery service.

That is how we've seen Uber Eats team up with Waymo to deliver food from certain restaurants in Phoenix that could see growth in the coming years.

Perhaps it's not too early to say just what type of delivery robot has won the campus robot wars before they even started, but it remains to be seen just how quickly robotaxis can wrestle a slice of the takeout delivery business from DoorDash drivers.

Will robotaxis account for a significant portion of takeout deliveries by 2030, or will this trend take longer to materialize? Let us know what you think in the comments below.