Waymo’s Next-Gen Robotaxi Could Face a Monumental Barrier

• Waymo readies sixth-generation robotaxis, featuring a custom design with front and rear sliding doors, modular sensors, and seating for five.

• The robotaxi startup has been testing its sixth-generation vehicles in the US over the past several months, as it has simultaneously expanded its operations in a number of cities in the west.

• Produced by Geely brand Zeekr, the sixth-gen Waymo Driver faces an uncertain tariff landscape ahead of the US presidential election, with tariffs originally scheduled to go into effect on August 1, 2024, having been delayed, possibly by weeks.

Technology in the autonomous vehicle field moves quickly even by tech startup standards. Many of us might still have the same smartphones we had five years ago, but in that span of time lidar sensors have shrunk and have become a lot cheaper, vision-only sensors have become far better at recognizing objects and lane markings, and robotaxis themselves have seen market launches in a number of US cities.

Waymo has been at the forefront of the race to a driverless future we were promised with plenty of fanfare a decade ago, and one whose arrival has seen more than its share of hiccups. And the company is now giving fuller a preview of its next-gen software and hardware that shares very little with the prototypes it rolled out a few years ago.

The robotaxi startup is already on its sixth-generation Waymo Driver, featuring four lidar and six radar sensors, in addition to 13 cameras. And unlike the earlier vehicles that kicked off commercial operations in the US, it is a custom-designed EV instead of an existing model modified for Waymo's robotaxi fleet.

"Through advancements in sensor technology and strategic placement, we've been able to reduce the number of sensors while maintaining our safety-critical redundancies. This approach prioritizes safety while also allowing for optimizations of our autonomous driving system," Waymo says.

The company has also designed the sixth-gen model to be easily reconfigured, allowing it to mix and match sensors based on the particular needs of the area the robotaxis serve, and the sensors themselves can work in fog, rain, heat, or even hail conditions.

One of the directions of sensor evolution has been sensor resilience, as the vehicles themselves can be out driving for quite a long time without human intervention. This means the exterior sensors can become obscured by environmental conditions over time, including bugs, which is just one of the issues that Level 4 cars have to contend with.

The sixth-gen vehicles themselves were developed for Waymo by Chinese automaker Geely and its Zeekr brand, and feature front and rear sliding doors that open subway-style.

With seating for five, it's not quite a minivan but rather something closer to a mini MPV, having been designed from the start as a robotaxi. Among other things, this means its dimensions had to be large enough to carry five in comfort, but also allow it to have a city-friendly footprint.

"Our 6th-generation sensor suite already has thousands of miles of real-world driving experience under its wheels and millions more in simulation. The Waymo Driver learns from the collective experiences gathered across our fleet, including previous hardware generations," the company notes.

If there is a big barrier on the horizon in regard to this particular robotaxi design, it's something that has little to do with autonomous driving tech per se.

The vehicle itself is produced by Geely, Volvo's parent company, in China before being fitted with sensors and other hardware and software stateside. This makes it subject to current EV tariffs that could potentially quadruple later this summer, going from 25% to 100%.

The tariffs were expected to go into effect on August 1 of this year, but have been delayed.

"In consultation with the Section 301 committee, USTR continues to review all comments and expects its final determination will now be issued in August 2024," the Office of United States Trade Representative said during the last week of July. "USTR expects that the modifications slated for 2024 will take effect approximately two weeks after it makes the final determination public."

It now appears that the earliest they could go into effect would be in early September.

Needless to say, such a tariff hike could greatly complicate Waymo's plans to launch the sixth-gen robotaxi stateside in large numbers, even though the prototypes have now been testing in the US for months. This is also why Waymo has not provided concrete details regarding just when these new robotaxis could start entering its fleets.

The deep-pocketed robotaxi industry is certainly no stranger to rapid cash burn, but potential 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs could be a bit of a barrier for Waymo to overcome, at least in the US.

For now, Waymo has not indicated whether its robotaxis could be produced elsewhere to address the expected tariff hike, but such a move would certainly have costs of its own.

Will robotaxis become commonplace by the end of the decade, or will they largely stay confined to a number of west coast cities? Let us know what you think in the comments below.