Autonomous-drive cars further off than most expect

Despite near constant chatter about self-driving vehicles revolutionizing how the world gets around, a new report says the transformation will take longer than many have predicted.

"The reality is autonomous-drive cars will not reach large numbers until close to 2040," said Hans-Werner Kaas of McKinsey. Kaas has written a new study looking at the expected development and impact of self-driving vehicles. "The hype is getting ahead of the reality."

Kaas sees autonomous drive technology being quickly developed, but expects implementation to be more gradual than many have predicted.

Several automakers, including General Motors, Tesla and Audi have announced plans to sell vehicles in the next couple of years with auto pilot systems that will allow cars to control their speed and steering on highways.

Beyond that, the development of truly autonomous drive vehicles will take another 15-20 years according to the McKinsey report.

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"We see this technology coming in three waves," said Kaas. "For many years there will still be many vehicles on the road that won't be communicating with autonomous drive vehicles, so the transition will take time."