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There's nothing wrong with how Morgan Stanley's Tesla analyst thinks about technology (tsla)
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Elon Musk wants to change the world. Adam Jonas wants to change it more.Jonas, the Morgan Stanley auto analyst, is becoming infamous for outlandish calls on the future of Tesla. Last week, New York times columnist Joe Nocera took a shot at Jonas for this — calling him a "cheerleader" for rising stock prices and scolding him for puffing a company that Morgan Stanley counts as a client.
Nocera's column was prompted by the analyst's decision to put a $465 price target on Tesla (about 90% above its share price at the time), based on the assumption that it'll expand into an entirely new business model that has nothing to do with what the automaker does today. The auto industry we have known for the past 100 years — of "human-driven, privately owned, internal-combustion vehicles" — is transforming, and Tesla is poised to "dominate" a new era for the automobile, Jonas wrote.
Nocera isn't the first to accuse Jonas of being a cheerleader for Tesla. (He's also not the first person to liken Jonas to Business Insider's CEO and editor-in-chief, Henry Blodget, who in his former life as a Wall Street analyst was as bullish on Amazon.com and other Internet 1.0 stocks as Jonas is on Tesla.)
The problem isn't how Jonas looks at the potential for Tesla to change the future of transportation. It's that his day job requires him to put precise numbers on company stock prices — and the long-term thinking just doesn't sit well with shorter term targets.
It's true that Tesla — which currently builds one car in one factory and sells it for around $100,000 — has enjoyed a frothy financial ride, with shares trading up over 1,000% since Elon Musk's startup electric carmaker staged a 2010 IPO.
But that's not how Jonas is looking at the company. Over the past year, he's argued that the way we get around is undergoing a profound change, and that the shift will shake up Wall Street as well as the traditional auto industry. Tesla is a part of this change, and an excuse for Jonas to address the big issues.
Jonas is out there. On earnings calls with Tesla's executives, he has reliably become the guy who asks questions that seem to baffle Musk and his lieutenants.
Take this exchange for example, from Tesla's second-quarter call (thanks to Seeking Alpha for the transcript):
Jonas: ... [venture capitalist] Steve Jurvetson was recently quoted saying that Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick, told him that if, by 2020, Tesla's cars are autonomous, that he'd want to buy all of them. Is this a real – I mean, forget like the 2020 for a moment, but is this a real business opportunity for Tesla, supplying cars to ridesharing firms, or does Tesla just cut out the middleman and sell on-demand electric mobility services directly from the company on its own platform?
Musk: That's an insightful question.
Jonas: You don't have to answer it.
Musk: I think – I don't think I should answer it.
Jonas then moved on to a question about Tesla's mapping technologies. This all happened in the context of Tesla adjusting guidance downward for total 2015 vehicle deliveries and preparing to launch an new car, the Model X SUV, in late September. There was a lot to talk about that had nothing to do with Jonas' preoccupations.
