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'A rip the band-aid off quarter': Here's what Wall Street expects from Tesla earnings amid an epic stock skid

tesla
Karol Serewis/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI
  • Tesla is set to report first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Tuesday.

  • The earnings report comes amid a sharp stock decline for Tesla, with shares down 43% year to date.

  • Detailed below is what four Wall Street firms expect from Tesla's upcoming earnings report.


Tesla has a lot to prove when it reports its first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Tuesday.

The company has been hammered by a barrage of negative news over the past month.

From a big first-quarter delivery miss, to a recall of 4,000 Cybertrucks, to a potential big shift away from a low-cost Model 2 toward a robo-taxi, Tesla CEO Elon Musk will have to calm the nerve of investors who have experienced painful volatility in recent weeks.

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Tesla stock hit a new 52-week low on Monday at $138.80. The stock is down 43% year to date and off 66% from its record high, reached in November 2021.

Here's what Wall Street expects from Tesla when it reports its first-quarter earnings results on Tuesday.

Barclays: 'Facing an investment thesis pivot'

Barclays said in a note last week it expected Tesla's earnings call to be a negative catalyst for the stock as investors came to terms with the company's potential strategic redirection away from a low-cost Model 2.

"Facing an investment thesis pivot and a sea of uncertainty, this Tesla call is extra highly anticipated," a Barclays analyst, Dan Levy, said. "Expect negative catalyst."

Levy said he thought Tesla's closely watched first-quarter gross margins would be below consensus estimates on Wall Street.

"Moreover, we expect little commentary from Tesla to dissuade investors that near-term fundamentals remain weak," Levy said. "FCF may be negative, marking the first quarter since 1Q20 of negative FCF. There could be some shock factor to this result."

Finally, Levy said that while investor questions on the call would be largely focused on Tesla's long-term strategy, "these questions may be unanswered."

Barclays rates Tesla at "neutral," with a $180 price target.

Bank of America: 'Results matter, but growth factors may matter more'

Bank of America said Tesla's headwinds were well known and likely fully reflected in the stock price. That will make the company's commentary about the state of electric-vehicle demand and its growth plans all the more important.

That could set the stock up for a positive price reaction, a recent note from the bank said.