5 takeaways from Newsom's big win in California's recall election

A recall campaign that at one point appeared poised to upend Democratic politics in sapphire-blue California concluded Tuesday with the status quo preserved, as Gov. Gavin Newson handily beat back an effort to oust him from office.

A strong GOP showing at the polls on election day could not match Democratic dominance in early voting. Concerns among Democrats over the summer that their party's voters were more apathetic than highly motivated Republican ones resulted in a torrent of spending on television and outreach efforts to every part of the traditional Democratic coalition, including labor, minorities and women.

The emergence of conservative talk radio host Larry Elder in July provided the perfect foil for Newsom. The governor went from casting the recall as a naked Republican power grab to hammering on a one-on-one contrast with Elder, his decades-long record of inflammatory remarks and his plans if elected to office.

The result was that the California electorate reverted to form and voted as it has in recent gubernatorial elections, giving the Democrat a double-digit victory, with nearly three-quarters of the vote counted.

Newsom's mandate

A key question is how Newsom will act in the aftermath of the recall. Will he be emboldened by his victory, or will he be humbled by the fact that Democrats had to spend tens of millions of dollars to ensure he retained his seat, in a state where his party enjoys an advantage of 5 million people in voter registration?

The large margin of Newsom’s victory provides the governor with a mandate to continue pursuing liberal policies on issues such as healthcare, climate change and immigration.

Roger Salazar, a Democratic consultant who served as press secretary for former Gov. Gray Davis, said he expects Newsom to emphasize homelessness, crime, wildfire preparation and the pandemic between now and next year's election.

"All of those things are all tied into an economic recovery that he's going to want to have major progress on as he faces reelection. He's moving from one election to another almost instantaneously," Salazar said.

The Big Lie — California version

Republicans — notably former President Trump and Elder — sought to undermine the integrity of the recall before voters headed to the polls Tuesday by saying the election was rigged.

“Does anybody really believe the California Recall Election isn’t rigged?” Trump said in a statement.

There are multiple verification processes to prevent fraudulent voting, and there is no evidence of cheating, but some Republicans are laying the groundwork for baselessly challenging the results of the election.

"They're trying to throw battery acid on our Constitution, on our electoral norms," Newsom advisor Sean Clegg told reporters Monday, before a rally in support of the governor that featured President Biden. "And it's a preview of coming attractions. We're going to see the same thing in 2022 and the same thing in 2024."

Some Republicans speculated that such baseless claims suppressed voter turnout Tuesday. Others, including former state GOP chairman Ron Nehring, said the messaging played into Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to undermine American democracy.

"False claims of election rigging are also bad politics, because it provides an excuse for not building a bigger campaign or a bigger party," tweeted Nehring, who supported former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer in the recall election.