As California posts America's best COVID numbers, Newsom's approval rises — and Caitlyn Jenner's recall hopes sink

Conservative critics of California Gov. Gavin Newsom seem to have made a serious miscalculation by seeking to recall and replace him this fall, new data suggests.

Three months ago, a plurality of registered California voters (48 percent) disapproved of the job the Democratic governor was doing, according to a poll conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Just 46 percent approved. The official recall campaign, which had launched a year earlier but only recently gained momentum, appeared to have a real (if still remote) chance of success.

But something else was happening three months ago as well: California was just coming off perhaps the scariest COVID-19 surge in America, averaging more than 500 deaths every day after enduring roughly 40,000 cases per day since Christmas.

Not anymore. Today, the Golden State has the lowest per capita rate of daily COVID-19 cases in the country — just 5 for every 100,000 residents, on average. More than half the population has received at least one vaccine dose. Bars and restaurants have welcomed customers back indoors. The vast majority of public school students have returned to classrooms. Few restrictions remain on businesses. And the entire state is set to fully reopen — and end its mask mandate — on June 15.

According to the latest Berkeley poll, Newsom’s numbers have recovered as a result, with a majority of Californians (52 percent) now saying they approve of his performance, versus just 43 percent who say they disapprove — a net shift of 11 percentage points. In contrast, then-Gov. Gray Davis’s approval rating fell into the 30s and then the 20s amid a prolonged electricity crisis before he was recalled and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.

And therein lies the problem.

Every California governor since Ronald Reagan in the 1960s has inspired quixotic recall petitions. Prior to February 2020, Newsom’s opponents introduced five recall petitions against him. None got off the ground. It was only when COVID started to spike over the holidays — and when Newsom seemed to be caught off guard — that the recallers were able to amass the 2 million signatures they needed to get on the ballot.

But recalling a governor because of the pandemic doesn’t make much sense politically, for the simple reason that in the time it takes to actually organize and hold an election, the pandemic is bound to look a lot different than it did before.

In Newsom’s case, it looks a lot better. And so do his chances of remaining in office (particularly in an overwhelmingly Democratic state like California when no other prominent Democrats are likely to appear on the recall ballot).

According to the latest Berkeley poll, the share of California voters who say Newsom has done a good or excellent job handling the pandemic is up 14 points since late January (to 45 percent), while the share who say he’s done a good or excellent job overseeing the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is up 32 points (to 54 percent). Just 35 percent of California voters now rate Newsom’s pandemic leadership as poor or very poor — and, not coincidentally, just 36 percent of them say they support the recall effort.

To successfully recall a governor, more than 50 percent of voters have to vote to remove him on the first of two ballot measures.

The second ballot measure, meanwhile, is about which challenger should replace the governor if the recall is successful — and Newsom’s opponents are faring even worse in that regard. For weeks, former Olympian and “Keeping Up With the Kardashians" star Caitlyn Jenner has hogged the media spotlight, but for all the wrong reasons: telling Fox News that a neighboring private plane owner at her airport hangar is abandoning California because he “can't take” seeing homeless people anymore, and claiming she didn’t vote in 2020 when records show she did.