Red wave or blue line? Biden, Trump start sprint to midterms as Democrats hope to defy history

No wonder Joe Biden had a broad smile on his face when he walked back and forth across the stage at Henry Meier Festival Park in Milwaukee on Monday, microphone in hand, as he started a two-month sprint to the midterms that Democrats now hope will defy history.

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A perfect storm of developments during the summer has upended the predictions of strategists in both parties that Republicans would easily capture the House and probably the Senate in an election that would leave Biden weakened.

Instead, as the campaign enters its final chapter, Democrats have realistic hopes of holding off the big losses in midterm elections that typically befall the party in power. That outcome would bolster Biden's standing while raising questions about former President Donald Trump's political acumen.

At stake is not only control of Congress but also the contours of the 2024 presidential election and beyond.

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Trump put himself at the center of the campaign Saturday night – and aimed his fire at Biden – with the first of what is expected to be a crowded season of rallies by the former president.

"He's an enemy of the state, you want to know the truth," Trump said of his successor in a speech in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where Biden on Thursday delivered an address depicting Trump and the "MAGA Republicans" who back him as threats to democracy. Trump called those remarks "the most vicious, hateful and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president."

By Trump's side in Wilkes-Barre were two candidates he has championed, Senate nominee Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano. In statewide polls over the past month, Oz has steadily trailed Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in what has become the Democrats' best hope of picking up a Republican-held Senate seat. Mastriano, a state senator and key supporter of Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, has trailed Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee.

But in a speech at the Mohegan Sun Arena that stretched for nearly two hours, the former president focused more on his past grievances than on the candidates' selling points. He denounced the FBI search of his home in Mar-a-Lago for sensitive government documents as "a travesty of justice" and declared, "The FBI and the Justice Department have become vicious monsters, controlled by radical-left scoundrels, lawyers and the media."

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Another speaker at the rally sparked particular controversy. Activist Cynthia Hughes offered a full-throated defense of her nephew, Tim Hale-Cusanelli, and others who participated in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Hale-Cusanelli gained notoriety by photographing himself dressed as Adolf Hitler and, according to law enforcement officials, once remarking of the Holocaust that Hitler "should have finished the job."

He was convicted of obstruction of an official proceeding and other charges by a jury in May. Sentencing is set for this month.

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Republican strategists wanted the midterm campaign to focus on high inflation and what they see as Biden's weak leadership. The president's job approval rating is still dismal, although it has ticked up to an average of about 42%. But Trump has complicated those plans by using his megaphone to complain instead about his false claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent.

His endorsement of Republican primary contenders who backed his argument that the election was "stolen" helped nominate Senate candidates who are now struggling in general-election matchups, not only in Pennsylvania but also in Georgia, Arizona and perhaps Ohio. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell dryly described that as an issue of "candidate quality."

With the Senate now split 50-50, Republicans need a net pickup of a single seat to regain control. Since World War II, the party in power has lost Senate seats in 13 midterm elections and gained them in five.