Beyond Verstappen: 10 Bold Predictions for the 2024 F1 Season

Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes, Haas showing Guenther Steiner the door, and Formula rejecting Michael Andretti—Formula 1 may already have delivered its biggest 2024 surprises and it’s still February.

But what else could feasibly happen through the next 10 months? Autoweek proffers up some bold predictions.

Sergio Perez Stumbles; Title Won't Be Easy for Red Bull

Max Verstappen is a shoe-in for a fourth successive world title and few should be surprised if he wraps up another crown prior to the last round.

Sergio Perez’s lack of form through 2023 didn’t cost Red Bull in the grand scheme of things but if he doesn’t up his game then a closer competitive landscape could prove costly. Out-of-contract Perez needs a strong start—and favorite track Baku being shifted later in the year doesn’t help—to ward off the vultures. There’s little loyalty with the Bulls if you aren’t winning.

Four Teams Will Win Races in 2024

Only two teams won a race in 2023 and they were split rather unevenly, with Red Bull taking a record 21 wins, and Ferrari pocketing one when the Bulls slipped up.

This is more out of hope than any judgment, but there’s every chance a resurgent Mercedes and Ferrari will triumph, and McLaren will re-join the winners’ enclose

Daniel Ricciardo Will Put RB on the Podium

The rebranded RB team is ostensibly on the up. It is forming a greater alliance with parent company Red Bull, has refreshed its management, and history suggests its results improve the longer the sport gets into a regulatory cycle.

It also has a rejuvenated and refreshed Daniel Ricciardo, reinvigorated after his lackluster McLaren spell, and eager to grasp his second shot. RB is unlikely to finish top half of the standings but Ricciardo will grab a podium in an attritional race.

Remember, this is a team that took podiums in 2019 and 2021, and won a race in 2020.

Hamilton Will Become F1’s Oldest Winner in 3 Decades

It seems scarcely believable, but seven-time champion Hamilton is 40 next January, by which time he’ll be dressed in the scarlet red of Ferrari.

He hasn’t won a Grand Prix in two years, but that owes much to Mercedes’ limitations rather than any decline in his own ability. In that timeframe Hamilton has finished runner-up nine times, taken seven thirds, and snatched a pole position.

An eighth title will likely remain elusive, but expect Hamilton to become F1’s oldest race winner since 1994 this season.

Major F1 Youth Movement on the Horizon

Several of Formula 1’s top drivers are only in their mid-20s but there are a handful of exciting young talents lurking on the horizon.

These things happen in cycles and the next one is looming, particularly after such a stagnant 2023-24 off-season. If the stars align the likes of Oliver Bearman (Haas maybe?) and Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Williams, or even Mercedes?) should both step up, while last year’s F2 champion Théo Pourchaire (Sauber?) and 2023 super sub Liam Lawson (RB?) could—and perhaps should—also land full-time drives.