Bold Predictions for Each NASCAR Cup Team and Who Will Win the Championship in 2024

With the NASCAR Cup season-opening Daytona 500 right around the corner, it’s time for predictions regarding the 2024 season. They involve everything from Ford’s and Toyota’s new cars to which drivers will be in contention for the series championship. In a Leap Year with a Cup season that has an unusual two-week break for the Summer Olympics, there will definitely be some surprises due to the schedule.

The 30thn Brickyard race returns to the 2.5-mile oval at Indianapolis, Iowa Speedway makes its debut in NASCAR’s premier series, and the Chicago Street Course race returns. Also, for the first time since the current playoff format was adopted the regular season will end Labor Day weekend at Darlington and the playoffs will begin at Atlanta.

And, if our predictions come true (and why wouldn't they), a case can be made for maybe as many as 21 different race winners vying for the 16 Playoff spots—now wouldn't that be fun!

A boring season isn’t in the cards.

Advantage Chevrolet on Short Tracks

Even though this is the third year for Chevrolet with its current Camaro, don’t expect the General Motors brand to have the upper hand over Ford’s new Dark Horse Mustang and Toyota’s Camry XSE.

Even though the two new cars may have a few issues to work out at the beginning of the season, each car’s character lines should channel air flow in a way that will benefit them on the intermediate tracks and superspeedways. However, Chevrolet will have the advantage on the short tracks.

One Ford engineer admits that if they had known NASCAR’s new short-track package ahead of time there are a few things they would have done differently on the new Mustang.

Team Penske: No Repeat for Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney produced his second consecutive multi-race winning season in 2023 and will turn in a repeat performance in 2024. However, it won’t be good enough for a second consecutive championship.

Blaney will make the playoffs, but he will be eliminated before the championship four are determined. It will be a Team Penske teammate that will keep him from repeating.

Hendrick Motorsports: At Least 2 Wins for Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott will return to victory lane.

After a frustrating season due to a snowboarding accident that sidelined him for six weeks with a broken leg. Then a one-race suspension for intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin in the Coca-Cola 600, the Dawsonville, Ga., driver experienced his first winless season since 2017.

This year Elliott will rebound with at least two victories.

William Byron and Kyle Larson combined for 10 victories last year and both Hendrick divers made it to the championship four. They will once again be Hendrick’s top performers this season, but only one of them will make it to the season finale at Phoenix as a title contender.

Alex Bowman would prefer to forget 2023. Not only did he experience his first winless Cup season since 2018, he also missed three races due to a broken back he suffered in a Sprint Car race. This year Bowman will remain healthy, but winless.

Joe Gibbs Racing: All 4 Cars Will Make the Playoffs

Ty Gibbs (pictured) did exactly what he should have done in his first full-time season in Cup, he used it as a learning year. However, he also showed why his second full-time season in Cup will bring him his first victory in the series. Last year, Gibbs recorded four top-five and 10-top finishes and led 112 laps.

Martin Truex Jr. struggled in the playoffs last year after winning the regular season championship. Inconsistency will plague his team once again this year. He will visit victory lane, but he won’t be a title contender.

Denny Hamlin will win a couple of the Crown Jewel races, but he will once again fall short of that elusive series championship.

Christopher Bell will win a race and make the playoffs, but no championship crown in his future this year.

23XI Racing: Tyler Reddick Will Return to Championship 4

This year, 23XI Racing is in its new state-of-the-art facility, but it’s the experience Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace take into 2024 that will make the difference.

Reddick will win two races again this season and make it into the championship four. He made it into the Round of 8 last year but was eliminated from the title run at Homestead.

Wallace made it into the playoffs last year via points, but this year it will be a victory that carries him into the title run.

RFK Racing: Wins for Both Keselowski, Buescher

Even though Brad Keselowski failed to win a Cup race for the second straight year in 2023, with his consistency and Chris Buescher’s three victories in the regular season, both drivers reached the playoffs.

This year, in Keselowski’s third year as co-owner, he and Buescher will visit victory lane.

Trackhouse Racing: Ross Chastain Slips a Notch

Ever since the current NASCAR Cup car was introduced in 2022, Ross Chastain has won two races annually. He will win again in 2024, but only one event.

After a frustrating, winless 2023 season, Daniel Suarez and his new crew chief will produce Suarez’s second Cup victory.

Trackhouse Racing’s alliance with Spire Motorsports has Zane Smith driving his first full-time Cup season in a car fielded by Spire Motorsports. The 2022 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series champion won’t win a race in his rookie Cup season.

Shane van Gisbergen is driving in seven Cup races this year. Don’t expect him to be a repeat winner in the Cup race on the Chicago Street Course. His full-time NASCAR Xfinity Series schedule is with Kaulig Racing.

Stewart-Haas Racing: Another Winless Season

Rebuilding years are always tough and with SHR’s drivers averaging 30 years old, the Kannapolis, N.C-based operation finds itself in that type of season.