What’s driving this sudden surge in Kentucky basketball recruiting success?

Two commitments from top-five national recruits in the past two weeks, including a pledge from the No. 1 basketball player in the country. A likelihood that two more top-10 prospects will join Kentucky’s 2022 class in the coming weeks, giving John Calipari one of his best recruiting hauls ever in Lexington.

What’s driving this uptick in recruiting success for the Wildcats?

The easiest answer would be to point to the coaching staff shakeup that occurred this offseason, when Calipari brought back Orlando Antigua and brought in Chin Coleman — two nationally renowned recruiters, both previously at Illinois — to join rising coaching talent Jai Lucas on the Kentucky staff.

That is almost certainly having some sort of effect, but those changes probably aren’t most responsible for the recruiting resurgence Kentucky is seeing with this specific class.

Skyy Clark, the first UK pledge for 2022, was already committed to the previous staff. Shaedon Sharpe, the nation’s No. 1 recruit, had strong ties to Kentucky through his AAU program and was already likely to pick the Cats before the coaching changes. Cason Wallace, another top-10 recruit expected to join the Wildcats in the coming weeks, has also long been seen as a UK lean.

So, the seeds were planted for a stellar 2022 class a while ago, both through previous work and fortunate circumstances.

One big difference between recent recruiting cycles and this one is the change to the NCAA’s name, image and likeness rules, which were updated over the summer to allow for players to make money while still in college.

“To me, it’s a combination of many things,” 247Sports analyst Travis Branham told the Herald-Leader. “I think NIL plays a huge part in that. Not only in attracting kids, but I think that if anybody knows John Calipari, it’s that he’s a trailblazer. Anytime he sees some sort of change — anything that he can be the first to innovate and attack head on and be the leader in it, he gets very energized. So I think the change to NIL not only helps Kentucky because of the marketability of these players, but I think it has re-energized Cal in a lot of ways to where he’s getting back after it really, really hard.

“He’s getting back into these elite recruits at the top of their list, and it’s obviously paying off very quickly.”

No doubt about that. The latest victory came Wednesday night with the commitment of Chris Livingston, who had long kept recruiting analysts guessing and might be the best example of the multiple variables at work leading to the formation of this Kentucky class.

The new coaching staff definitely deserves some of the credit for landing Livingston’s commitment.

Coleman, who had a front row seat for Livingston’s first game of the July evaluation period and stayed in daily contact with the star player, did an outstanding job in his recruitment.

Without those NIL changes in place, however, things might have ended up differently. Kentucky might not have had a realistic shot.

Like Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates, two players who recently committed to Memphis for this season, Livingston was long seen as a player likely to skip college altogether and opt for a pro career out of high school. Keyonte George, the No. 3 player in the new 247Sports rankings, is another 2022 prospect many thought would go pro. He committed to Baylor not long after NIL reforms went into effect.

“I think NIL is playing a major factor for a lot of these kids,” Branham said. “It’s obviously playing a major factor in these kids going to college. Jalen Duren, Emoni Bates and now Chris Livingston — those are three guys that everybody expected them to all go the pro route. NIL changes, and now they’re all coming to college.

“Kentucky obviously has a massive market for it. So I think if anyone says that NIL isn’t playing a part in this, frankly, they’re fooling themselves.”

Kentucky on right track

Calipari downplayed the role of NIL reforms last week, but only to a degree. He said he couldn’t see a recruit picking Kentucky just because of the possibility of NIL money. He did, however, acknowledge the reality of the new landscape, noting that while UK might not sign a player just because of its NIL possibilities, the program could very well lose recruits if they don’t stay on top of the trend.