Elon Musk may take a page from Ferrari's playbook with Tesla's Cybertruck

• The Cybertruck is the most divisive vehicle launch in at least a decade.

• Wall Street analysts see limited supply in 2024 and maybe even in 2025.

Tesla will probably sell every single Cybertruck it makes in 2024 and 2025. That may not amount to many vehicles, though.

CEO Elon Musk could be taking a page from Ferrari's playbook by limiting supply, at least initially, to create scarcity value and keep prices high.

This is also what sometimes happens with big new iPhone launches, when Apple ramps up production slowly, and fans are left fighting to get their hands on the latest technology.

The Cybertruck is the most divisive new vehicle in at least a decade. People either hate the angular design or they love it. Then there's Musk's controversial comments, which may have alienated some potential buyers, in addition to challenges scaling up manufacturing.

Wall Street's Cybertruck forecasts

Wall Street expects Tesla to sell about 48,500 Cybertrucks in 2024. That's the average of recent forecasts from analysts at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, and Wedbush.

"Consensus delivery forecasts need to come down in part because we expect initial production to be challenging," the UBS analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a recent note to investors. "Cybertrucks available in 2024 may be more 'statement vehicles'"

Goldman analysts reckon that in 2025, Tesla will deliver 150,000 Cybertrucks. Wedbush sees 230,000 being sold that year.

Morgan Stanley sees only 78,000 Cybertrucks being sold in 2025, for a total of just 108,000 vehicles over the next two years. That's compared with more than 1 million reservations, for which people put down deposits of $100. Even if 80% of these consumers cancel their reservations, that's still 200,000 purchases.

'Ferrari's playbook'

If only 108,000 Cybertrucks are delivered in 2024 and 2025, that means demand could significantly outstrip supply in this early period.