What is the equivalent value of falling back 32 spots to land Elijah Moore?
In a pick swap, trading away the 42nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and receiving back the 74th overall pick, the Cleveland Browns were able to land former second round wide receiver Elijah Moore from the New York Jets. However, just sliding back 32 picks in the draft in exchange for the wide receiver leaves room for ambiguity in the value the Browns actually surrendered in this trade.
Here, we dive into four different draft pick trade value models, see what they say the value of the move was, and do our best to figure out the exact value the Browns gave up to get Moore.
Using the Jimmy Johnson trade model
The original draft trade value chart was created by legendary head coach Jimmy Johnson. It was developed in the early 90s, and some NFL teams still follow it today.
According to Johnson’s chart, the 42nd overall pick has a value of 480. The 74th overall pick, which the Browns are now selecting after sliding down, has a value of 220. This brings the value of dropping 32 slots and landing Moore to essentially swapping an early third rounder (66th overall pick) for the former Jets wide receiver.
Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart
Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model over at Over the Cap, a new model than the outdated 90s version of the Jimm Johnson trade chart, the value of the drop in 32 picks on day-two of the draft is significantly deflated in value.
According to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model, the 42nd overall pick is given a value of 1,106, and the 74th overall pick is given a value of 819. This brings the value of dropping 32 slots with the Jets for Moore to just a mid-sixth round pick, the 211th overall pick in the draft.
The Athletic's Ben Baldwin says the Browns essentially gave up a mid-4th rounder
The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin is known for his work in the analytics sphere, and while he did not disclose how he came up with the value of a mid-fourth rounder for falling back from pick 42 to 74, we are going to take it and run with it.
To give a number to a mid-fourth round value, we will just pull the 16th pick in that round, which is the 118th overall pick in the draft. Ben, if you are reading this, we want more context on how this number came to fruition. You are not off the hook!
The Rich Hill model
There is then the Rich Hill model as well.
And according to the Rich Hill model, the 42nd overall pick is weighted at a score of 142, while the 74th overall pick is given a value of 64. This brings the difference to 78, and according to this model, this is equivalent to giving up the 65th overall pick in the draft to acquire the former second round wide receiver.
Can't we just average them all out?
So if we take all three models and average them out, that may be the best way to get a true value of what the Browns gave up to get Moore. So to recap, by the various models, the Browns gave up the equivalent of the following to trade down 32 spots to land Moore:
Jimmy Johnson’s trade chart: 66th overall pick
Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart: 211th overall pick
Ben Baldwin’s value: Mid-4th rounder (let’s call it the 118th pick)
Rich Hill model: 65th overall pick
So if we take the average of all of these various models, it comes out to the Browns essentially surrendering the 115th overall pick in the draft. Giving up a mid-fourth round pick for a former top-40 pick at the age of nearly 23 with two years left on his rookie deal is a no-brainer deal to make for the Browns.
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