The Fed is about to release its first policy decision since 3 banks collapsed. Here's what high-profile commentators and analysts say it will do.

jerome powell
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives at his news conference following the closed two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2019.Yuri Gripas/Reuters
  • The Fed meeting this week will be the first since a flurry of bank failures threw markets into chaos.

  • Market heavyweights such as Jeff Gundlach and Steve Eisman have been discussing what they see is next for rates.

  • Odds are tilting toward a rate hike of 25 basis points at the March 22 meeting.

To raise or not to raise interest rates: that's the question facing the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this coming week, the first since three US banks failed and sparked fears about a brewing financial crisis.

Market views on what's next for the benchmark fed funds rate have been whipped around recently. The Fed earlier this month appeared set to deliver a rate hike of 25 or 50 basis points, its ninth consecutive increase, as it deals with  inflation sitting well above its 2% target.


Traders then began pricing in a possible pause for March after the collapse and seizure of Silicon Valley Bank fanned fears about a broader crisis in the banking sector.

Heading into Wednesday's decision, odds were tilted again toward an increase of 25 basis points in the fed funds rate, to a range of 4.75%-5%.

Here's a look at what some top commentators and analysts foresee for the Fed's next move.

David Rubenstein, co-chairman of private equity firm Carlyle Group: 

A quarter-percentage point hike is the most likely decision for March, said the billionaire investor.

A pause would make people think the Fed has lost interest in fighting inflation. On the other hand, an increase of 50 basis-points is too much for some banks to handle at this point.

"So I suspect 25 basis points is the split-the-baby decision that's most likely," Rubenstein told Bloomberg.

'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman