Golden Globe Predictions: How Much Are Sacha Baron Cohen and ‘The Crown’ Going to Win, Anyway?

The key to this year’s Golden Globes may lie in when the 80-odd members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association cast their ballots. The voting opened on Feb. 10 and ran for two weeks, through Feb. 23 — but toward the end of that period, the HFPA found itself under fire after stories charging the organization with corruption appeared in the Los Angeles and New York Times.

If voters were waiting for the final couple of days to cast their ballots, some might be inclined to tone down the usual Globes idiosyncrasies and show that they can make smart choices. But if they’d already voted before the stories broke, then voters were probably less worried about how their awards would be perceived, and more concerned with spreading the wealth and keeping all the studios who shower them with access (and gifts) happy in this strangest of all awards seasons.

If history is any indication, the Globes will want to share the love rather than doting on any one movie or show: Last year, they gave awards to seven different films in the 14 film categories, and to eight different television shows in the 11 TV categories. The year when “La La Land” won seven different Globes was an anomaly then and remains one now — although if they did want to pile it on, they could give lots of awards to Sacha Baron Cohen, who’s nominated for acting in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and also for producing the comedy-movie nominee “Borat.”

Also Read: Golden Globes Voters Tried to Be Bold and Inclusive But Just Couldn't Do It

While it sometimes appears as if Globe voters are aware of how their choices are perceived, they can also toss that out the window, as they did two years ago when “Bohemian Rhapsody” was named Best Motion Picture – Drama over “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “A Star Is Born.”

Throw in the fact that the pandemic has meant that the members haven’t been able to hit the party circuit and drop clues as to their leanings — hell, they haven’t been able to talk as much to each other about those leanings — and you have a year in which a group that’s often difficult to predict is even more so. But we’ll give it a shot anyway.

Film categories

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
“The Father”
“Mank”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“The Trial of The Chicago 7”

“Mank” had the most nominations, while “Promising Young Woman” had the most surprising nominations. But unless the latter film scores a real upset, which is possible, this is probably a race between “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “Nomadland.” “Chicago 7” is likely the film that the voters liked the best, but “Nomadland” is the one the critics tell them they should vote for, and the one that might win them more credibility points. And except for that crazy time they voted for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” in recent years they’ve often gone for the darker, less mainstream film.

Predicted winner: “Nomadland”

Also Read: Golden Globes Org Paid Millions to Members in Potential Tax Conflict

Focus Features

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

In a very strong category, this probably comes down to Viola Davis, Frances McDormand or Carey Mulligan — although Andra Day may be an upset waiting to happen. Mulligan is the only one who hasn’t won a Globe in the past four years, and she feels as if she’d be the boldest choice, though McDormand would be an unassailable option. And in a year in which the HFPA has come under fire for not nominating enough Black actors (though it’s more glaring in the television categories), the chance to affect the optics by giving the award to Davis (or Day) could be irresistible among the voters who care what outsiders think of their choices. The question is, how many of them care?

Predicted winner: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”

There was a time when you’d wonder if voters would want to give this award to somebody who could respond by doing press conferences and posing for selfies — somebody like, say, Anthony Hopkins or even Riz Ahmed. But the late Chadwick Boseman is undeniable in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” and it’s hard to imagine that they won’t want to celebrate him even if he’s no longer around to be nice to them.

Predicted winner: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Also Read: Netflix Totally Dominates Golden Globes With 35% of All Nominations

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“Hamilton”
“Music”
“Palm Springs”
“The Prom”

The fact that one of the nominees is “Hamilton,” the filmed record of a Broadway show, is an oddity and a sign of what a strange year it was, with full-scale musical adaptations of “West Side Story” and “In the Heights” being pushed to 2021. There’s no real precedent for a filmed stage show being nominated in the category, much less winning — and yet it has a chance to do so, because “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” is likely to win one or two acting awards, and voters may not want to pile on too many plaudits. If that happens, “Palm Springs” could surprise here, too.

Predicted winner: “Hamilton”

Amazon Studios

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Kate Hudson, “Music”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Rosamund Pike, “I Care A Lot”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma”

They wouldn’t dare give it to Kate Hudson in a movie whose nominations caused Globes voters more embarrassment than anything else this year. And they’ll have another chance to honor Anya Taylor-Joy in the TV categories. Unless Michelle Pfeiffer’s stardom comes into play, this will give the HFPA a chance to be the first to crown a newcomer who will no doubt be hugely appreciative.

Predicted winner: Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
James Corden, “The Prom”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield”
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”

Voters liked Andy Samberg enough to give him a nomination for “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” back in 2013, so you can’t write him off. But this is probably between Sacha Baron Cohen, mastermind of the year’s hottest hot-button comedy, and Lin-Manuel Miranda, creator of the decade’s hottest musical. When Baron Cohen won for the first “Borat” back in 2006, it came as something of a surprise. This time, it won’t be.

Predicted winner: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Helena Zengel, “News of the World”

“Mank” received more Golden Globe nominations than any other film this year, but this is the only category in which it’s favored to win. Olivia Colman could easily take this to give one award to “The Father,” the HFPA does love “The Mauritanian” actress Jodie Foster and they could even pull a surprise by giving it to 12-year-old Helena Zengel from “News of the World.” But only one film in the last decade has led the field in Globe nominations yet gone home empty-handed (“Carol,” which deserved better), so Amanda Seyfried should deliver a win for “Mank.”

Predicted winner: Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of The Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Jared Leto, “The Little Things”
Bill Murray, “On the Rocks”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”

How much of a Sacha Baron Cohen love-fest could this show become? A big one, if he gets this in addition to one or two for “Borat.” But this is also a category in which “Judas and the Black Messiah” and “One Night in Miami” could well be recognized, and Globe voters will likely opt to go with Daniel Kaluuya (for “Judas”) or Leslie Odom Jr. (for “Miami”) instead of Baron Cohen. Kaluuya has the bigger, bolder role in a very late-breaking movie, but Odom gets extra points for doing his own singing as Sam Cooke, and “One Night in Miami” had plenty of time to register with voters.

Predicted winner: Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”

BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
“The Croods: A New Age”
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”

When a Pixar film goes into this race as the favorite, as “Soul” does, it has almost never lost. Sure, the company that won six of the first seven awards handed out in the category hasn’t won for three years, with “Incredibles 2” losing to the favored “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” in 2019 and “Toy Story 4” being beaten by “Missing Link” in what seemed to be a wide-open race last year. But while Cartoon Saloon’s “Wolfwalkers” has a remote chance at an upset, it’s hard not to think that Pixar will land its ninth win here.

Predicted winner: “Soul”

BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“La Llorona” (Guatemala/France)
“The Life Ahead” (Italy)
“Minari” (USA)
“Two of Us” (France / USA)

The Globes took some flak for rules that made “Minari” ineligible in the best-picture categories, restricting it to the foreign-language category instead. And while the fact that it could have been in the best-picture conversation might make it the obvious choice here, voters ignored it in several other categories in which it was eligible: director, supporting actress, screenplay, score … So maybe its support isn’t strong enough, and this award will go the way it’s gone in eight of the last 10 years — to a film that’s also in the running for the international Oscar. That would probably mean Thomas Vinterberg’s “Another Round.” Then again, do they want to get even more flak over “Minari”?

Predicted winner: “Minari”

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Regina King, “One Night in Miami…”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of The Chicago 7”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”