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NHL playoff races: Sabres trending up, Kraken fading after hot start
Here's the risers, fallers, and where each and every playoff race stands as we head into the stretch run of the NHL season.
The 2023 NHL trade deadline comes and goes on Friday (March 3), yet the biggest names keep dropping off the board. While those moves happen, some teams are collecting wins and strengthening their position heading toward the postseason, while others are watching their grip on a playoff spot slip away.
Want to catch up on the ever-changing postseason picture? Then you’re in luck with this post, which breaks down each playoff race as we head into the final few weeks of the regular season. You can check the standings for postseason scenarios that are already a certainty — such as the top three seeds in the Metro and Atlantic being all locked up — and for day-to-day movement up and down the table in both conferences as the stretch run looms.
(Editor's Note: Some teams are mentioned multiple times due to being involved in both division and wild card races. All standings are up to date heading into Feb. 27 games.)
Eastern Conference
Wild Card races
Islanders (69 points, 63 games played, .548 points percentage): Bumpy but slightly up 📈
Entering this past week, the Islanders lost four of five games, including only getting two of six points out of a trio of contests against the Canucks, Canadiens, and Senators. Maybe the lone win of that stretch provided a sign. On Friday and Monday, the Islanders pulled off two regulation wins against the Penguins.
Stretching back to Feb. 17, the Isles won four of their last six games and three of four. Not awful in the wake of a troubling injury to Mat Barzal, but the schedule isn’t especially merciful. The Islanders play six of their next nine games on the road, with next Saturday kicking off a key stretch: home against the Red Wings, hosting the Sabres, visiting the Penguins, and then a March 11 home game versus the Capitals. No team in the East wild-card race has played more than the Isles’ 63 GP, so they can’t waste chances.
Penguins (69 points, 63GP, .548%): Scary drop, then some weekend hope. 📉
This post paints a picture of the Penguins’ puzzle: whatever happens on their way in or out of the playoffs, this season probably isn’t going to end well for Pittsburgh. That’s especially true as East juggernauts only hardened their armor with Timo Meier going to the Devils and the Bruins bulking up with Dmitry Orlov. But responding to four straight regulation losses with back-to-back weekend wins ranks as a positive sign for the Penguins’ playoff hopes. A tough three-game road trip (Predators, Lightning, Panthers) awaits, and they probably need to win their next game against the Islanders on March 9. Do you think they’re cursing the scheduling gods for setting them up for three games in quick succession (March 12, 16, and 18) against a Rangers team revitalized by the trade deadline? For all we know, that scheduling quirk could doom them.
Sabres (66 points, 58 GP, .556%): Up, up, up, but not currently in playoff position. 📈
Many times, games in hand are the standings’ answer to the murky promise of a first-round pick or a prospect with tantalizing potential. You can talk yourself into your favorite team winning all of those games. In most cases, those dreams are unfounded.
Leave it to this already-dreamy version of the Sabres to win three games in a row, all against opponents fighting for a playoff spot or already there: the Lightning, Panthers, and Capitals. Even better, Buffalo beat Washington and Florida in regulation. With five of their next seven games at home, the Sabres could solidify their position (notice that their points percentage is stronger than that of the two current East WC teams above).
Red Wings (64 points, 58GP, .552%): Up, a lot. Not as much as Buffalo, but a lot. 📈
On Feb. 7, the Red Wings fell to a mediocre 21-20-8 record after losing 5-2 to the Oilers. Instead of folding, they rattled off a five-game winning streak, and have won seven of their last nine games. They beat the Capitals in regulation, and their two defeats were to two playoff teams in the Kraken and Rangers (playoff teams who aren’t a threat in the wild card races).
Are the Red Wings actually good enough to hang in there? Maybe, it boils down to getting the job done. Although they play five of their next seven games on the road, three of their next four matches come against teams they “should” beat (two games vs. the Senators) and one proof-of-concept game to prove they’re truly playoff material (March 4 showdown on the road against the Islanders).
Panthers (64 points, 61GP, .525%): Down, but not out? Clock is ticking. 📉
When you break teams down based on the sort of underlying stats that best indicate future success or upcoming disappointment, the Panthers grade out far better than any team in the East wild card race. While not perfect, the Panthers’ mix of monstrous offense and passable defense should work, at least before you nitpick among the best of the best.
But we’ve been saying that basically all season long, and the Panthers are losing crucial games — often during regulation. Truly, they need to make a long stretch of home games count. Starting on March 2, the Panthers enjoy a seven-game homestand, and also play nine of 11 in Florida. These Cats keep sleeping through key moments, but for real this time: they need to get it done.
Capitals (64 points, 62GP, .516%): Selling with distant dreams of a miracle. 📉
Every now and then, a team sells at the trade deadline but still makes modest noise during the playoffs. Maybe that’s the path for a Capitals team unwilling to totally liquidate as Alex Ovechkin chases Wayne Gretzky’s goals record. After losing six in a row and seven of eight in regulation, their hopes are dim enough to categorize them as a longshot.
Senators (60 points, 58GP, .517%): Holding onto faint hopes/potentially fooling themselves. 🟰
On the back of an 8-3-1 run, you could squint and believe that Ottawa has a shot. Beginning with two upcoming home games against the Red Wings, they could embrace their most likely role as spoilers. Ottawa holding a slightly better points percentage than Washington condemns the Capitals more than anything else.
