Senators have deck stacked against them in hunt for playoff spot

It has been almost six years since the Ottawa Senators last made the playoffs — a run which saw them advance to the 2017 Eastern Conference final. Now, after years of disappointment, the franchise has a glimmer of hope of ending its drought.

The Senators are just five points shy of the final wild-card seed in the East with 19 games remaining, and only need to leapfrog two competitors: the Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins.

So could the Senators become the fourth Canadian team to enter the playoff conversation, joining the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets? Possibly. But the odds remain stacked against them.

That is something Ottawa’s skaters are probably accustomed to by now, as the franchise appeared destined for another spring without meaningful hockey less than three weeks from the March 3 trade deadline. At 24-24-3 with 51 points on Feb. 12, the Senators were much closer to the draft lottery than a playoff spot.

Then, out of nowhere, the club won both halves of its back-to-back versus the Calgary Flames and New York Islanders, generating much-needed momentum and marking the beginning of its late-season postseason push.

From there, the Senators secured points in seven of their next nine contests and embarked on a five-game winning streak — including a back-to-back sweep of the Detroit Red Wings at the end of February.

Ottawa performed to an impressive 8-2-1 record from Feb. 13 to March 4, producing the third-best mark in the NHL during that span behind the Boston Bruins (10-0-0) and Minnesota Wild (8-1-2). And that put the Sens within just a few points of a wild-card position.

Much of that progress came undone Monday as the Senators’ playoff aspirations took a significant hit following an embarrassing 5-0 defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks. To make matters worse, the Penguins, Islanders and Panthers were each victorious Tuesday night.

This recent setback now puts the franchise in a challenging position, sitting tied with Buffalo and Washington at 68 points, five back of Pittsburgh for the second wild-card seed and six behind New York for the first. It has also dropped Ottawa’s playoff odds to 19.6 percent, the lowest since March 2.

The encouraging news is the Senators remain in the playoff chase, especially since they own two games in hand on the Panthers and three on the Islanders.

Strength of schedule not on Senators' side

The Penguins, who have played the same amount of games as Ottawa (63), figure to account for one of the two remaining spots thanks to their favourable postseason odds (91.5 percent). At 32-22-9 with 73 points, the Penguins are in a pretty good position, but it also helps they have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule (as of Wednesday) league-wide.

While the Islanders only have 16 games left, they are one spot behind the Pens with the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. Ottawa, meanwhile, features the toughest remaining schedule in the league.