Oscar Predictions: In a Weird Year, Will We See Weird Winners?

The longest and strangest Oscar season ever is almost over. Voting has ended, the accountants are tallying the ballots and soon the pandemic Oscars will mercifully bring the season to a close.

And while we think we know most of what’s going to happen on Sunday night at Union Station in downtown Los Angeles, can we really be sure in a year in which everything happened virtually and real awards buzz was all but impossible to track? No, we can’t.

Here’s how crazy things are: Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” has a real chance to win Best Picture, but it might have an even better chance of going home without a single award.

At this point, we know what’s won all of the awards leading up to the Oscars, and we know that Academy voters like to spread the love around: Over the last decade, the Best Picture winner has only averaged only three-and-a-half total wins, with a peak of five for “The Artist” in 2012 and a low of two for “Spotlight” in 2016. So here are our best guesses of what’s going to prevail in all 23 categories — down from the usual 24 Oscar categories now that the two sound categories have been combined into one.

Also Read: Why Oscars Remain Big Money for ABC Despite Expected Record-Low Audience

Best Picture
Nominees:
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

By all rights, “Nomadland” should be an easy pick in this category. It won the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild Award, the two most formidable Oscar predictors. It also won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA — and while films including “La La Land” and “1917” have won those awards but then lost Best Picture, “Nomadland” seems more intimate and personal than the bigger, flashier movies that won for director but lost for picture.

So why does it feel as if “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “Promising Young Woman” have a shot to win? Maybe it’s because this has been such a strange year, when nothing feels certain and it’s hard to trust the usual precursor awards. Maybe it’s because of the rapidly expanding, increasingly international Academy, or because we don’t how engaged voters will be in this elongated year full of distractions. Maybe it’s because “Chicago 7,” with its huge ensemble cast, is more of an actors’ movie, and actors are still the Academy’s largest branch by a decent (though shrinking) margin. Maybe it’s because the Academy’s preferential voting system in this category looks for a consensus winner, and “Nomadland” can be divisive.

All of this is to say that an upset wouldn’t be shocking. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the string of important wins that “Nomadland” has assembled.

Predicted winner: “Nomadland”

Chloe Zhao with Frances McDormand on the set of “Nomadland” / Searchlight

Best Director
Nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

While we’ve seen a number of upsets in the Best Picture category in recent years, the Best Director category has usually gone as expected. (One exception: last year, when Bong Joon Ho won for “Parasite” in a slight upset over the favored Sam Mendes for “1917.”) Even if another film scores a surprise victory over “Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao has run the table on directors awards, and her film is such an impressive personal statement, and such a singular piece of filmmaking, that she’s essentially a lock here.

Predicted winner: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

Also Read: Why Making 'Nomadland' Left Chloe Zhao 'Emotionally Drained'

Best Actor
Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”

Anthony Hopkins scored an upset win over Chadwick Boseman at BAFTA, but you could argue that Hopkins had home-court advantage at that London-based awards show. So even though his heartbreaking turn in “The Father” is one of his best ever, and even though Riz Ahmed could be a candidate to score an even bigger upset, Academy voters are likely to use this opportunity to salute the late Chadwick Boseman for a fierce performance that would definitely have been in the running if he were still alive and well. Virtual awards shows aren’t designed to provide powerful emotional moments, but Boseman’s wins have done just that over the last couple of months … although a surprise win by Hopkins could be a memorable and emotional one, too.

Predicted winner: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Carey Mulligan in “Promising Young Woman” / Focus Features

Best Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Vanessa Kirby seems unlikely to win for a film that may scare some viewers off with its harrowing reputation, but all four of the other nominees could absolutely emerge victorious in this ferociously competitive category. Viola Davis won the SAG Award, Andra Day won the Golden Globe, Frances McDormand won BAFTA and Carey Mulligan won the Critics Choice Award, the first time ever that those four awards have gone to four different actresses.

Historically, races like this have often been won by the younger actress, which in this case would be Mulligan. But Davis could well make “Ma Rainey” only the eighth film to produce Best Actor and Best Actress winners, and the first to do so without a Best Picture nomination … and McDormand has the advantage of being in what will likely be the Academy’s favorite movie … and Day would become the latest in a long line of actresses who sang their way to an Oscar, including Renée Zellweger, Emma Stone, Marion Cotillard and Reese Witherspoon in recent years. I’m going with a gut feeling here, but does anybody have a four-sided coin I can flip?

Predicted winner: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Also Read: 'Promising Young Woman' Director Emerald Fennell on How She Created a Safe Space on Set (Video)

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Daniel Kaluuya has won almost every supporting-actor award on the road to Oscar, but in this category he’s facing something new: His co-star in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” LaKeith Stanfield, is also nominated, which could conceivably split the “Judas” vote. If that happens, the likeliest spoilers would be Leslie Odom Jr., who performs the formidable task of singing like Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami,” or Paul Raci, who could the beneficiary of real love for “Sound of Metal.”

But voters have been casting ballots for Kaluuya all season long, and Stanfield’s presence on the ballot isn’t apt to change that.

Predicted winner: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Yuh-Jung Youn in “Minari” / A24

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yun-Jung Youn, “Minari”

At various points in this long awards season, Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman and Amanda Seyfried have all seemed to be potential favorites in this category — but over the last two months, one significant award after another has gone to Yuh-Jung Youn, the charmingly feisty grandmother in “Minari.” While Close is still looking for her first win after eight nominations, and Bakalova is one of the year’s most delightful discoveries, SAG and BAFTA seemed to seal the deal for Youn.

Predicted winner: Yun-Jung Youn, “Minari”

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”

“Borat” won the Writers Guild Award for adapted screenplay, but WGA rules had disqualified “Nomadland” and “The Father” — and at the Oscars, this race is probably between those two films. It’s tempting to think that voters will use this category as the best opportunity to reward “The Father.” But if you think that “Nomadland” will win Best Picture, as I do, you have to acknowledge that the Best Picture winner has also won a screenplay award all but four times in the last 20 years. (And one of those four was a silent movie, “The Artist.”)

Predicted winner: “Nomadland”

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

This feels like another two-horse race, this time between “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “Promising Young Woman.” At first, noted wordsmith Aaron Sorkin seemed to have the upper hand with “Chicago 7,” replete with its crackling courtroom dialogue — but when the two films have gone head-to-head recently, including at the Writers Guild Awards, Emerald Fennell’s provocative “Promising Young Woman” script has typically come out on top. Both screenplays are sharp and timely — but unless “Chicago 7” gets on a roll that includes Best Picture, Fennell’s cry of female rage may feel sharper and more timely.

Predicted winner: “Promising Young Woman”

Best Cinematography
Nominees:
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Nomadland”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Unlike the writing categories, Best Cinematography is thoroughly disconnected from Best Picture. The same film has won both categories only twice in the last 20 years, though Joshua James Richards’ luminous magic-hour compositions in “Nomadland” make it a formidable competitor whether or not the film wins Best Picture. Its chief rival is Erik Messerschmidt’s rich black-and-white work in the film that won the American Society of Cinematographers Award, “Mank.” Still, the Oscars and the ASC disagree more often than they agree.

Predicted winner: “Nomadland”

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” / David Lee/Netflix

Best Costume Design
Nominees:
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”

It’s been five years since “Mad Max: Fury Road” became the second consecutive film to win both Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, but it may be time for another of those twofers. In this case, the period clothes of “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — in which Chadwick Boseman’s shoes are a central plot point — will probably edge out the fancier and frillier “Emma” or the old-Hollywood duds of “Mank.”

Predicted winner: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”