How Will Power Has Clearest Path to IndyCar Title in Laguna Seca Finale

• Will Power comes into Sunday’s race—not including any extra points awarded to the top qualifier—with a 20-point lead over Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden.

• Marcus Ericsson and Scott McLaughlin are also alive in the championship, but would need several things fall their way.

• This is the closest championship battle the series has seen—at least with five drivers—since the 2003 Indy Racing League season.

A win in the season-ending race at Laguna Seca this Sunday will not guarantee the IndyCar championship to the driver who winds up in victory lane.

Sure, it may look good on a resume or in the IndyCar season record book, but for Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon, Marcus Ericsson or Scott McLaughlin, taking the checkered flag first means nothing if current points leader Will Power finishes third or better.

Because if Power does that, he will earn his second career IndyCar championship, essentially preventing Dixon from earning a record-tying seventh IndyCar title, Newgarden a third crown, and first-time championships for either Ericsson or McLaughlin.

Some fans are under the impression that drivers are still competing for a points purse of 1 ½ points or even double points than in regular IndyCar races. But that’s not the case – and hasn’t been the case since the 2019 season finale.

Even if Dixon, Newgarden, Ericsson or McLaughlin earn the pole and win from it, that’s still not enough points if Power simply earns a podium finish. It doesn’t matter if the Aussie driver takes second or third place, just as long as he finishes on the podium, the championship is his.

But nothing is guaranteed to Power: he finished 26th in last year’s race at Laguna Seca after finishing runner-up in the previous edition held there in 2019.

“It’s still a very tough fight,” Power said.” We've got to come up to Laguna seriously ready. Yeah, as you know, in this series it switches incredibly quickly. Got to be smart.”

For the record, Power comes into Sunday’s race—not including any extra points awarded to the top qualifier—with a 20-point lead over Dixon and Newgarden. Ericsson, who won this year’s Indianapolis 500, is 39 points behind Power and the hottest driver on the circuit of late (with one win, three other podiums and a fourth-place finish in his last five starts), McLaughlin, is 41 points back.

Historically Close

Also, for the record, this is the closest championship battle the series has seen—at least with five drivers—since the 2003 Indy Racing League season when a quintet of drivers were separated by just 30 points heading into the season finale at Texas Motor Speedway.

Sunday comes down to three drivers on Team Penske vs. two pilots for Team Ganassi, as no other IndyCar teams are in contention for the championship.

Sure, it would take a near-miracle for McLaughlin to win the title, and he’s already talking about his chances for next year, but realistically, if the other four finalists run into trouble on Sunday—or someone inadvertently runs into them, ending their day prematurely—the New Zealand driver could cap off what has been nothing short of a Cinderella-like season in the best way possible.

“I'm feeling really strong,” McLaughlin said. “There's no reason why this can't be great momentum for next year, and yeah, I feel like I'm driving the best I ever have in my whole career right now.

“I have nothing to lose, but at the same time I want to do the best job for my team. I don't need to be a Kamikaze or anything like that, but I just need to focus on what I'm doing and just dot my Is, cross my Ts, and have a good run.

“The ideal weekend is a pole, race (and) win. It's no doubt that I can go to Laguna Seca and win, and I'm ready to do that.”

Dixon, of course, is seeking to make history by earning a seventh IndyCar championship, which would tie him with legendary A.J. Foyt for most championships in series history.

But there’s also at least one outlier that the five title hopefuls will have to keep a very close eye upon, namely, Colton Herta.

Even though the son of Andretti Autosport minority owner Bryan Herta failed to advance to the championship round on Sunday, he could potentially have a significant impact in determining who ultimately wins the title.

Since IndyCar returned to the twisting, 2.238-mile Weather Tech Raceway Laguna Seca in Monterey, Calif., Herta has won both races there.

By contrast, Power has finished 2nd (2019) and 26th (2021), Dixon finished 3rd (2019) and 13th (2021), Newgarden 8th (2019) and seventh (2021), Ericsson was 11th in 2019 and sixth in 2021, and McLaughlin was 12th in his only previous start there last year.

Math Lesson

Do the math—and even though it’s extremely tight, one of the tightest finishes we’ve seen in IndyCar in the last several years—Newgarden actually has the best finishing average in the two races at Laguna (7.5), Dixon is next (8.0), followed by Ericsson (8.5), McLaughlin (12.0) in just the one start and Power (14.0).

If there’s one tie that binds all five finalists, it’s this: don’t discount anything or anybody. Just because a guy is 30 or 40 points back coming into the race doesn’t mean fate can’t shine upon him and not upon someone else.

All it takes is being in the wrong place at the wrong time, or a $5 part that fails and costs you the championship.

“Anything is possible,” Dixon said. “I think it can be as simple as somebody having a mechanical issue. That's the tough part. I think it's pretty cool that we don't need any resets or any chase championships or anything like that. It always comes down to the wire in the IndyCar Series. It's fun to be a part of.

“It will be interesting. It will be a fun race hopefully, and we'll be, as I've always said, trying as hard as possible until we can't do anything more about it. Yeah, we'll hope for the best.”

Follow Autoweek contributor Jerry Bonkowski on Twitter @JerryBonkowski