Are we in a recession? Elon Musk says the pile of failed banks proves it.
Good morning, team. I'm Phil Rosen. If you missed it Monday, regulators seized First Republic Bank and JPMorgan took over the majority of its assets.
Shares crashed almost 50% as markets opened and investors took in the news of the second-biggest bank failure in US history — and now all 84 First Republic offices reopened as JPMorgan branches.
The tumult kicks off a key week of economic data, with the Fed meeting starting today and many strategists expecting a 25 basis-point rate hike tomorrow.
On Friday we'll get the April jobs report.
As for today, let's see what Elon Musk and Larry Summers have to say about the state of the economy.
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1. Failed banks like First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank — all three have collapsed in the last eight weeks — are a sign that more Fed rate hikes are just about guaranteed to push the US into a severe downturn.
At least according to Musk.
In a recent tweet, the billionaire Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX chief said a mild recession is "already here."
"Further rate hikes will trigger severe recession. Mark my words."
Musk pointed specifically to the turmoil that's rocked the banking sector as reason to believe there's pain ahead.
Markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance the central bank raises rates on Wednesday.
"It's not like just the canary in the coal mine (SVB) died, one of the staunchest miners (Credit Suisse) died too & the cemetery is filling up fast!"
The Fed in the last year has raised interest rates by 475 basis points, and others have similarly warned of potential over-tightening.
And Musk, given his position at the helm of a handful of major technology companies, said he "may have more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever."
In any case, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said recession odds for the next year are now sitting at 70%.
Specifically, he sounded the alarm that stagflation — high inflation combined with low economic growth — is already beginning to take shape.
Inflation expectations are starting to settle in across the economy, he explained, and it's unlikely that the Fed will be able to hit its inflation target without triggering a "meaningful slowdown."
"That doesn't mean the Fed's objective should be to induce a slowdown," Summers said. "But if the Fed does what's necessary to contain inflation, I think a slowdown is likely to come along."
What's your recession and inflation forecast look like for the second and third quarter of the year? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (email@example.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank shocked markets by hiking interest rates, cementing the idea the Fed will tighten again. Here are the latest market moves
3. On the docket: American Express, Pfizer, Starbucks, all reporting.
4. Buy into this batch of cheap defensive stocks. UBS strategists shared 40 names that will continue to outperform as the economy heads toward a downturn. See the full list.
5. Top economists have shared recent takes on everything from a painful credit crunch to a meltdown in the commercial real estate market. Here's what Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Mohamed El-Erian, and others are expecting in the months ahead.
6. These six factors suggest the stock market bottomed last October. Fundstrat's Tom Lee made the case that an equities rally will carry on from here, and that investors still remain too pessimistic on the current landscape. Get the scoop.
7. Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson thinks investors are banking too hard on a potential Fed rate cut this year. That discrepancy could set the stock market up for a sell-off, in his view. In Wilson's words: "If the message delivered at this meeting is more hawkish, it could provide a near-term negative surprise for equities."
8. Meet a real-estate investor who started at 38 and built a $2.7 million portfolio in four years. Dan Rivers recommends that beginners develop a knowledge base, build relationships, and close deals, and to do so "in that order."
9. An ex-Walmart cashier made $6 million in revenue in three years selling things online. She shared how she got her start — and broke down her top five tips for print-on-demand products.
10. Bitcoin could jump nearly 70% if the US defaults on its debt. That's according to a Standard Chartered analyst, but he doesn't think every single crypto would react the same way: "The optimal trade would probably be long bitcoin, short ethereum."
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.
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