Tim Scott Could Win—if Trump and DeSantis Go Nuclear

Last week, Sen. Tim Scott announced the creation of an exploratory committee to run for president in 2024. Scott, an African-American Republican from South Carolina, grew up in a poor community as the son of a single mom.

In my view, Republicans could do a lot worse than President Scott. But despite his inspirational backstory, authentic likability, and message of hope, the general consensus is that he has an ice cube's chance in hell of winning the Republican nomination. So why is he even pursuing this?

In a normal world (this is not a normal world), there are numerous reasons for an aspiring politician like Scott to throw his hat in the ring. The frontrunner might stumble or have to drop out of the race, for example. Getting in the race gives you a shot at being at the right place at the right time.

Trail Mix: Sen. Tim Scott Broke the One Rule of Shadow Campaigns

Sometimes frontrunners destroy each other and leave room for a breakout candidate to run up the middle. It’s theoretically possible that Trump and DeSantis could go nuclear on each other to the degree that the electorate yearns for some counterprogramming. Scott’s amiable and positive persona would stand in stark contrast to the personalities of both Trump and DeSantis.

Republicans also have a history of nominating the next guy in line. Ronald Reagan ran in 1976, before winning in 1980. More recently, John McCain was runner-up to George W. Bush in 2000, and Mitt Romney was runner-up to McCain in 2008. Both men would become their party’s nominee four years later.

It’s also true that running for president generally increases your odds of being tapped for the vice presidency—a job that Scott might covet.

George H.W. Bush was a Reagan adversary before becoming his running mate. Joe Biden ran (an albeit longshot campaign) before being tapped as Barack Obama’s veep. And Kamala Harris attacked Joe Biden’s record on bussing before joining his ticket.

And even if you don’t get picked for veep, running for president can also elevate your profile in other ways.

Take Mike Huckabee, for example. He didn’t win, but his performance in Republican debates elevated his status as a Fox News celeb. Likewise, Pete Buttigieg became a national figure (going from mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to Transportation Secretary) by virtue of his 2020 Democratic primary campaign.

This is to say that, in a normal environment, Scott’s decision would be perfectly rational.

But this environment is far from normal. This is Donald Trump we’re talking about. He doesn’t take kindly to opposition. You’d be hard-pressed to find any of his 2016 opponents who had their stature “elevated” by virtue of running for president.

In 2016, Trump compared Dr. Ben Carson’s “pathological temper” to child molesting (in fairness, he later made Carson head of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development). More recently, Trump suggested Ron DeSantis could face allegations from “underage” girls, or “possibly a man!” As I write this, Trump’s SuperPAC has unveiled an ad mocking Ron DeSantis for eating pudding with three fingers.

It probably goes without saying that, while a normal politician might defeat you, Trump humiliates you. (None of his 2016 competitors are daring to run in 2024.)