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US companies have stopped talking about an imminent recession

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  • Executives at major US companies have slowed down warnings of a coming recession.

  • That's according to a Goldman Sachs analysis of US company earnings calls.

  • It's another indicator the US economy is holding strong.

Companies have stopped talking about a recession. It's another sign that the US economy might avoid a downturn this year.

During the recent round of fourth quarter earnings calls, executives at only 12% of businesses in the Russell 3000 — an index that tracks the US's 3,000 largest publicly traded companies — mentioned the term "recession," according to a Goldman Sachs note published last week.

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This was down considerably from the previous quarter's decade-high peak of nearly 45%, when it seemed like everyone was forecasting a downturn. 91% of CEOs predicted a recession was coming over the next 12 months, according to a KPMG survey conducted in July and August of last year, and many economists and investors were right there with them.

 

While the earnings calls data point isn't a perfect indicator, it's far from the only positive signal for the US economy. While prices are still higher than the Federal Reserve would like, headline inflation has fallen for seven straight months, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since 1969.