After rapid intensification, Surigae becomes 1st super typhoon of 2021

This infrared satellite loop shows Super Typhoon Surigae churning over the Philippine Sea on April 17, 2021. (CIRA/RAAMB)

The first typhoon of 2021 in the western Pacific Basin formed on Friday, local time, after Surigae underwent rapid intensification, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Typhoon Surigae was packing 10-minute average sustained winds of 176 km/h (109 mph) as of early Saturday afternoon, local time.

By late Saturday afternoon, Surigae had continued to intensify and reached 10-minute average sustained wind speeds of 185 km/h (115 mph) and was moving northwest at about 20 km/h (12 mph). With this level of strengthening, the Surigae became the first tropical system of the year to reach super typhoon status, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

For comparison, a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the Eastern Pacific has maximum 10-minute average sustained winds of at least 183 km/h (114 mph). Wind gusts with Super Typhoon Surigae reached up to 260 km/h (161 mph) late Saturday afternoon, local time.

Surigae, which first became a tropical storm over the Philippine Sea on Wednesday while churning midway between Guam and the Philippines, is the first tropical cyclone to form anywhere in the northern hemisphere in 2021.

On Thursday, the storm brought 231 mm (9.09 inches) of rain to Koror, the largest city in Palau, as the storm churned over the area.

The storm is called Bising in the Philippines now that it has entered the area monitored by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Once a tropical storm or typhoon enters this area, it is given a name by PAGASA separate from the international name that it may have already been designated.

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"Conditions will be favorable for further strengthening," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

The combination of light wind shear and warm ocean waters will aid in the strengthening of the system.

This satellite loop shows Typhoon Surigae gaining strength across the Philippine Sea early Saturday afternoon, April 17, 2021. Surigae had developed an "eye" which often indicates a strong tropical system. (CIRA/RAMMB)

"Surigae could at least threaten or brush the eastern Philippines later this weekend or early next week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

The amount of impacts to the Philippines will depend on how quickly Surigae makes a turn to the north over the weekend.

If Surigae turns to the north sooner, the core of the strongest wind and heaviest rain can miss the Philippines and remain across the open waters of the Philippine Sea.

However, should Surigae remain on a westward track slightly longer, strong winds and the heaviest rain could lash the eastern Philippines.

If Surigae tracks far enough west it could spread heavy rain and damaging winds from eastern Mindanao to eastern Visayas and perhaps eastern Luzon from late Saturday into early next week, local time, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Rain amounts across the Philippines are expected to reach 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) in the eastern Visayas and southeast Luzon with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 400 mm (16 inches). This can lead to flash flooding and the threat for mudslides across the region.

In eastern Luzon and northeast Mindanao, rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) is expected.

Winds from the storm will highly depend on how close the typhoon tracks to the coast, though Nicholls anticipates the possibility for wind gusts to near 160 km/h (100 mph), which can lead to power outages and some structural damage.

Regardless of the exact track, the strong winds from the storm are likely to produce dangerous seas across the eastern Philippines beginning late this week and continuing into early next week. Boaters should use caution if venturing into offshore waters.

After turning to the north of the Philippines, Surigae is likely to run into less favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, which should cause it to lose wind intensity later next week. However, it will still have to be watched closely as impacts to Iwo To and the Volcano Islands to the south of mainland Japan cannot yet be ruled out.

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